Schätzungen zum Verdienst Cyberkrimineller liegen wahrscheinlich viel zu hoch. Der Grund ist dass Fehler nur nach oben gehen und durch zu niedrige Angaben nicht ausgeglichen werden können.


One recent estimate placed annual direct consumer losses at $114 billion worldwide. It turns out, however, that such widely circulated cybercrime estimates are generated using absurdly bad statistical methods, making them wholly unreliable. Suppose we asked 5,000 people to report their cybercrime losses, which we will then extrapolate over a population of 200 million. Every dollar claimed gets multiplied by 40,000. A single individual who falsely claims $25,000 in losses adds a spurious $1 billion to the estimate. And since no one can claim negative losses, the error can’t be canceled.